The Philippine-China Tension: A Contention That Could Lead To A Worldwide Conflict

THE PHILIPPINE-CHINA TENSION: A CONTENTION THAT COULD LEAD TO A WORLDWIDE CONFLICT

by Paul Beltran

The Philippine-China dispute has gained notoriety since its creation on the 4th of April during 2012. It has gained the attention of not only the neighboring Southeast Asian countries, but also the attention of the countries part of the United Nations. To this day, it is regarded as one of the biggest unresolved territorial disputes that has been reported to the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea).

China claims that the ownership of the Scarborough Shoal, one of the major the territories being fought over, belongs to them. The Philippines rebutted, saying that the shoal is in our ownership in accordance to international law. The entire dispute just turns into a see-saw of claims stating that one of the two countries making the said claim owns the Scarborough Shoal.

The Scarborough Shoal is a very important landmark in the South China Sea, since it is seen as a trade route that could potentially earn trillions of dollars worth of barter. China, however, could probably see it as a great military base like what they have done to the Spratly Islands. [1]

The Philippines is using the international laws of the UNCLOS in order to get general approval from all the other members of the UNCLOS so that the ownership of the shoal would belong to us. One of our best claims is that the shoal is within our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which happens to be 124 nautical miles away from the baseline, whereas the shoal is 550 nautical miles from Hainan Island, the closest territory that China has near the shoal. [2] Another genuine claim that could increase the Philippines' chances of getting support from the UNCLOS is a 300-year old map that our country has in our possession that shows the shoal being part of our country's geography. [3]

China defended themselves, arguing that the shoal belongs to their history and has been mapped as a part of their country since the Yuan dynasty at around 1271 A.D. [3]. China tried to support this fact by stating that the map from the Yuan dynasty as well as other earlier maps that were made before the map that the Philippines has in possession came to existence truly exists, but it has since been proven false and inaccurate. [4] China, however, tries to justify their cause by presenting the 9-dash line, but the accuracy was questioned by the Philippines and has caused more conflict to this ever-growing tension between the two countries. [5]

These two countries are notorious due to their conflict for the shoal as well as several other groups of islands inside the South China Sea, but that does not mean that they are the only ones fighting in this dispute. Several countries such as Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan also claim areas inside the South China Sea. [6]

The UNCLOS is about to have a hearing regarding the ownership of the Scarborough Shoal on July of this year. [7] The odds of victory may point to our country, but that does not mean that China is going to just sit down and make the decision pass. China will surely have problems regarding the decision of the UNCLOS does happen to end the dispute in favor for the Philippines.

China is one of the fastest-growing superpowers to this day. It has the largest population in the entire world, having around 1.3 billion people as of 2014 [8], which, in turn, gives them the largest army in the entire world. China has the history of being arrogant and would preferably resolve matters in many ways other than diplomacy when they are in a tight situation, as shown in their latest dispute with Taiwan. [9]

The question in this matter, however, is not only about what China might do if they receive the short end of the stick, but also what the international community would do as a response to China's actions. There would be countries that would support China while there would be countries that would oppose it for sure.

It is also very clear that, despite having the largest army in the world, China is not capable of defeating the United States in a war both strategically and technologically. China may be arrogant, but they have smart and capable leaders. They would surely ask for support from allied nations if the situation does arise. This will lead to many countries choosing sides: Whether to support or oppose China in a war that could destroy many, if not all, of the cultures around the world because of our technological advancements if the possibility occurs. If a war like this ever occurs, it is given that the US would surely be at the helm of the opposing party. Countries will engage in combat, but the result is still the same.

Our country will be dragged into a war that we cannot win.

The Philippines is a third world country. It lacks the funds to build a great military unit that could compare to many other countries in South East Asia, much less against a superpower. We would be helpless and would be forced to choose a side, more specifically the United States.

Many people would say that all of this tension against China could have been avoided if we would have just given up the shoal in order to prevent any needless conflict. However, it would have an opposite effect. By choosing to let China take the shoal without a fight, it would instead fuel the sense of superiority that China already has for quite a while and would make them more abusive, making them think that everything would simply just go their way, especially against small nations like us.

Others would also state that the Philippines should have talked it out with China instead of immediately asking for assistance from other countries through the UNCLOS. This, however, could also prove futile. China is very arrogant and would not withdraw from claiming the shoal, similar to China's continuous advancements towards "uniting" Taiwan with China, when in truth that they just want to control Taiwan as a lesser country under the Chinese government. [10] [11] This just proves that China is capable of lies, also shown in their desperate attempt in proving their ownership of the shoal through ancient maps that were proven to be false. [4]

So why not just share the ownership of the shoal? Unfortunately, this is not possible. That's because countries like the US and China beforehand are totalitarian when it comes to territories. They would prefer taking the territory as a whole and dislike the idea of having to split territories. Though some may say that China is no longer totalitarian, it has been until 1965. Who's there to say that they might not go back to their old ways?

In conclusion, the Philippines has better rights to the shoal than China does, but that will not stop China from taking action. If both countries would not find a solution through diplomatic means beforehand, China might use force instead and would make the US defend our country. This, however, will make other countries join in and pick sides as well, causing an all-out war from both sides. That's only one of the many possibilities, but in our current situation, no one can say that it is not likely.